The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil
Costa da Silva, Guilherme Jonas
Oreiro, José Luis
Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José
Includes bibliographyThis article describes the theory of demand-led growth and provides evidence that a demand-led growth regime exists in the Brazilian economy. Based on the methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), econometric tests of this hypothesis show that almost 85% of the growth rate of real GDP in the period 1990-2005 is explained by demand-side variables, mainly exports and government consumption. As the current fiscal crisis rules out fiscal expansion, Brazil's only option is to adopt an export-led growth model. The article also shows that the maintenance of undervalued real exchange rate is a major determinant of export growth in developing countries such as Brazil.