Modelling climate change impacts on anchovy and sardine landings in northern Chile using ANNs

Abstract

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are adjusted to predict monthly landings of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) in northern Chile (18 degrees 21'-24 degrees 00'S). Fishing effort (FE), landings and twelve environmental variables are considered from 1980 to 2012. External validation for the best models using all variables showed an R-2 of 95% for anchovy and 99% for sardine, with an efficiency of 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The models were simplified by considering only FE and sea surface temperature (SST) from NOAA satellites (SST-NOAA). Using these variables, very similar fits were achieved, comparing with the previous models, maintaining their predictive capacity. Downscaled SST for A2 climate change scenario (20152065) obtained by statistical regionalization from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and three FE scenarios (2010-2012 average, + 50% and 50%), were used as inputs for ANN simplified models. For A2 future climate change scenario (2015-2065) using 2010-2012 average FE as inputs, anchovy and sardine landings would increase 2.8% and 19.2% by 2065 respectively. With FE variations (-50%), sardine landings show the highest increase (22.6%) by 2065 when FE is decreased. Keywords. Author Keywords:forecast; pelagic landings; climate change; artificial neural net works; northern Chile