Artículos de revistas
Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission
Fecha
2009-12-16Registro en:
Malaria Journal. 2009 Dec 16;8(1):296
Autor
Massad, Eduardo
Behrens, Ronald H
Burattini, Marcelo N
Coutinho, Francisco A
Institución
Resumen
Abstract
Background
Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk.
Materials and methods
A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival.
Results
The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit.
Conclusions
Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.