Artículos de revistas
Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts using WRF hourly QPF and TopModel for a middle watershed
Fecha
2014Registro en:
Advances in Meteorology, New York, v. 2014, p. ID484120/1-ID484120/12, 2014
1687-9309
10.1155/2014/484120
Autor
Calvetti, Leonardo
Filho, Augusto Jose Pereira
Institución
Resumen
Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were obtained from ensembles of the weather and research forecasting (WRF) model
for the Iguac¸u river watershed (IRW) in southern Brazil. Thirty-two rainfall events between 2005 and 2010 were simulated with
ten configurations of WRF. These rainfall events range from local to synoptic scale convection and caused a significant increase
in the level of the Iguac¸u river. In the average, the ensembles yielded up to 20% better skill than single WRF forecasts for the
events analyzed.WRF ensembles also allow estimating the predictability through the dispersion of the forecasts providing relevant
information for decision-making. Phase errors of ensemble forecasts are larger than amplitude errors.More complex microphysics
parameterizations yielded better QPFs with smaller phase errors. QPFs were fed to IRWhydrological model with similar phase and
amplitude errors. It is suggested that lagged QPFs might reduce phase errors