Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.