Artículos de revistas
Risk Management In Petroleum Development Projects: Technical And Economic Indicators To Define A Robust Production Strategy
Registro en:
Journal Of Petroleum Science And Engineering. Elsevier Science Bv, v. 151, p. 116 - 127, 2017.
0920-4105
1873-4715
WOS:000397549600011
10.1016/j.petro1.2017.01.035
Autor
Santos
Susana M. G.; Gaspar
Ana Teresa F. S.; Schiozer
Denis J.
Institución
Resumen
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) In this study, we consider robustness as a risk management method in the development of complex petroleum fields, complementing the well-known techniques of acquiring new information and adding flexibility to the production system. To create a robust production strategy we aim to reduce sensitivity to uncertainty. Our methodology is based on the analyzed performance of an optimized production strategy, covering all possible scenarios. We use technical and economic indicators to objectively identify and quantify refinements in this strategy to assure good performance across possible scenarios. We focus on the robust number and placement of wells, and robust platform processing capacities. We consider the robustness of net present value and of the recovery factor, computed using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. We quahtify the risk through semi-deviation, instead of standard deviation, to focus on the downside volatility. Refining an optimized production strategy significantly improved the optimization process by increasing the expected value of each objective and, dramatically reduced the downside risk. 151 116 127 PETROBRAS Research Network SIGER Center for Petroleum Studies (CEPETRO) particularly UNISIM Research Group Department of Energy of the School of Mechanical Engineering of the University of Campinas Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)