Artículos de revistas
Fiscal Costs Of Monetary Policy: Indirect Effects Of An Interest Rate Shock On Brazilian Public Net Debt
Custos Fiscais Da Política Monetária: Os Efeitos Indiretos De Um Choque De Juros Sobre A Dívida Líquida Do Setor Público
Registro en:
Revista De Economia Política. Editora 34, v. 36, n. 3, p. 557 - 579
0101-3157
S0101-31572016000300557
Autor
Carvalho
Laura; Diniz
André; Pedrosa
Ítalo; Rossi
Pedro
Institución
Resumen
The paper estimates the fiscal cost of an increase in the Brazilian policy interest rate - the SELIC - by considering not only the direct effect on the yield of public bonds that are indexed to the SELIC, but also indirect effects on: (i) the yield of public bonds that are indexed to the exchange rate and inflation, and (ii) the stock of public net debt through adjustments in the value of international reserves measured in domestic currency. Projections are based on the estimation of the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates and inflation by means of a vector auto-regression. We conclude that the inclusion of such indirect effects has an ambiguous effect on the response of the implicit interest rate on public net debt to shocks in the SELIC, when adjustments in the value of international reserves are not considered. However, the inclusion of the latter amplifies the fiscal cost of a more restrictive monetary policy. These results call for a better coordination between monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in Brazil. 36 3 557 579