Artículos de revistas
Modeling The Growth Of Brazilian Cattle Population [modelagem Do Crescimento Populacional Do Rebanho Bovino Brasileiro]
Registro en:
Revista Brasileira De Zootecnia. , v. 34, n. 6 SUPPL., p. 2225 - 2232, 2005.
15163598
2-s2.0-33645035183
Autor
De Freitas A.R.
Loibel S.M.C.
De Andrade M.G.
Do Val J.B.R.
Institución
Resumen
The growth of the Brazilian bovine cattle population was evaluated using the effective number of animals and the annual slaughter rate from 1983 to 2000. The Richards model was fitted with the profile likelihood technique. Two population parameters were calculated by Markov chain modeling: a) the probability of the cattle population to reach 200 million of animals in 2015 as a function of the slaughter rate; b) the time to reach this size, considering different annual slaughter rates. The Richards model was adequate to estimate the Brazilian cattle population growth since overestimated and/or underestimated values ranged between one and 2.5%. The probability of the Brazilian herd to reach 200 millions animals in 2015 for an annual slaughter rate of approximately 17% is 0.7 and the expected time to reach 200 million animals for annual slaughter rates of 16% and 18% was 11 and 20 years respectively. 34 6 SUPPL. 2225 2232 (2001) Anuário da Pecuária Brasileira, 359p. , ANUALPEC 2001. São Paulo: FNP (2002) Anuário da Pecuária Brasileira, 400p. , ANUALPEC 2002. São Paulo: FNP (2003) Anuário da Pecuária Brasileira, 400p. , ANUALPEC 2003. São Paulo: FNP Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., Cox, D.R., (1994) Inference and Asymptotics, 360p. , London: Chapman & Hall Bertsekas, D.P., (2001) Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control. 2.ed., 2, 320p. , Englewood Cliffs: Athena Scientific Bertsekas, D.P., (2000) Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control. 2.ed., 1, 520p. , Englewood Cliffs: Athena Scientific Bickel, P.J., Doksum, K.A., (1977) Mathematical Statistics, 492p. , San Francisco: Holden-Day Box, G.E., Cox, D.R., An analysis of transformations (1964) Journal of the Royal Statistic Society, Serie B, 6, pp. 211-252 Çinlar, E., (1975) Introduction to Stochastic Processes, 402p. , New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Fitzhugh, J.R.H.A., Analysis of growth curves and strategies for altering their shape (1976) Journal of Animal Science, 42 (4), pp. 1036-1051 Freitas, A.R., Albino, L.F., Michelan Filho, T., Modelos de curvas de crescimento em frangos de corte (1984) Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, 19 (9), pp. 1057-1064 Hammerle, A., Roque-Specht, V., Mombach, J.C.M., (2002) Predição da Curva de Crescimento de Escherichia Coli Utilizando Modelos Matemáticos em Diferentes Condições de Temperatura e PH, , http://www.inf.unisinos.br/~lbbc/CBCTA2002.PDF, 05/12 Heyman, D.P., Sobel, M.J., (1982) Stochastic Models in Operations Research: Stochastic Processes and Operating Characteristics, 1, 548p. , New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company Loibel, S.M.C., (2004) Inferência e Indicadores de Viabilidade Para Modelos Estocásticos de Crescimento de Populações, 114p. , Campinas: Universidade Estadual de Campinas Tese (Doutorado em Engenharia Elétrica) - Universidade Estadual de CampinasLudwig, D., Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction probabilities (1996) Ecological Applications, 6 (4), pp. 1067-1076 Ludwig, A., (1974) Stochastic Differential Equations: Theory and Application, 45p. , New York: John Wiley & Sons Paz, C.C.P., (2002) Associação Entre Polimorfismos Genéticos e Parâmetres da Curva de Crescimento em Bovinos de Corte, 107p. , Piracicaba: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz. Tese (Doutorado em Melhoramento Animal) - Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz, 2002 Perotto, D., Cue, R.I., Lee, A.J., Comparison of nonlinear functions for describing the growth curve of three genotypes of dairy cattle (1992) Canadian Journal of Animal Science, 72 (3), pp. 773-782 Pineda, N.R., Cenário de cadeia produtiva da carne bovina no Brasil (2002) ABCZ, 2 (10), pp. 186-187 Pineda, N.R., Influência do Nelore na produção de carne no Brasil (2000) Simpośio Nelore, pp. 3-13. , 2000, Ribeirão Preto. Anais... Ribeirão Preto: Associação Brasileira de Criadores de Nelore Richards, J.F., A flexible growth function for empirical use (1959) Journal of Experimental Botanica, 10 (29), pp. 290-300 Sandland, R.L., McGilchrist, C.A., Stochastic growth curve analysis (1979) Biometrics, 35 (1), pp. 255-271 Seber, G.A.F., Wild, C.J., (1989) Nonlinear Regression, 768p. , New York: John Wiley