THE PROPOSED INVASION MAY BE MOTIVATED AS MUCH OR MORE BY IRAQ´S OIL AS BY THEIR WEAPONS. CONTROL OF IRAQ WOULD ENSURE WESTERN SUPPLIES IN THE EVENT THAT SAUDI ARABIA FELL INTO THE HANDS OF FUNDAMENTALISTS. BUT THIS IS AN ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF AN INVASION ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REAP THE REWARDS OF MILITARY SUCCESS. WE CAN EXPECT OIL PRICES TO RISE NA THE DOLLAR TO FALL. THE RESULT WILL BE STAGFLATION - ON THE TOP OF THE PRESENT RECESSION. TOURISM WILL COLLAPSE, AND THE PROBABLY POLICY RESPONSES WILL MAKE THINGS WORSE. IF THE OIL FIELDS ARE SET AFIRE, AS THEY WERE DURING THE GULF WAR, NOT ONLY THE POLITICAL BUT ALSO ECONOMIC FALLOUT WILL BE LASTING.THE PROPOSED INVASION MAY BE MOTIVATED AS MUCH OR MORE BY IRAQ´S OIL AS BY THEIR WEAPONS. CONTROL OF IRAQ WOULD ENSURE WESTERN SUPPLIES IN THE EVENT THAT SAUDI ARABIA FELL INTO THE HANDS OF FUNDAMENTALISTS. BUT THIS IS AN ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF AN INVASION ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REAP THE REWARDS OF MILITARY SUCCESS. WE CAN EXPECT OIL PRICES TO RISE NA THE DOLLAR TO FALL. THE RESULT WILL BE STAGFLATION - ON THE TOP OF THE PRESENT RECESSION. TOURISM WILL COLLAPSE, AND THE PROBABLY POLICY RESPONSES WILL MAKE THINGS WORSE. IF THE OIL FIELDS ARE SET AFIRE, AS THEY WERE DURING THE GULF WAR, NOT ONLY THE POLITICAL BUT ALSO ECONOMIC FALLOUT WILL BE LASTING.